Agent-based simulation of COVID-19 containment measures: the case of lockdowns in cities.

The effectiveness and political feasibility of COVID-19 containment measures such as lockdowns, are contentious. This stems in part from an absence of tools for their rigorous evaluation. Common epidemiological models such as the SEIR model generally lack the spatial resolution required for micro-level containment actions, the visualization capabilities for communicating measures such as localized lockdowns and the scenario-testing capabilities for assessing different alternatives. We present an individual-level ABM that generates geo-social networks animated by agent-agent and agent-building interactions. The model simulates real-world contexts and is demonstrated for the city of Jerusalem. Simulation outputs yield much useful information for evaluating the effectiveness of lockdowns. These include network-generated socio-spatial contagion chains for individual agents, dynamic building level contagion processes and neighborhood-level patterns of COVID-19 imports and exports useful in identifying super-spreader neighborhoods. The policy implications afforded by these various outputs are discussed. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12076-023-00336-w.

Raising the bar (21)

This editorial summarizes the papers published in issue 17(3) (2022). The first paper analyses the impact of knowledge spillovers on patent applications using a Tobit model. The second paper sets out an economic-theoretical model of industrial specialization patterns across cities and their impact on the spatial agglomeration of skilled workers and long-term productivity growth. The third paper analyses the price and average cost functions of a competitive industry in which firms face diseconomies of scale but enjoy economies of scale when they agglomerate. The fourth paper shows that productivity spillover effects and their endogeneity are key to understanding the productivity-compensation gap. The fifth paper studies geographical and sectoral specialization versus concentration of global supply chains. The sixth paper combines spatial autoregressive (SAR) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models to test whether urban residents have reacted to the Covid-19 pandemic by moving out of US metropolitan centres into the suburbs. The seventh paper investigates the impact of natural disasters caused by climate change on forced outmigration flows in South and South-East Asian countries.

Freedom of Information and Personal Confidentiality in Spatial COVID-19 Data

We draw attention to how, in the name of protecting the confidentiality of personal data, national statistical agencies have limited public access to spatial data on COVID-19. We also draw attention to large disparities in the way that access has been limited. In doing so, we distinguish between absolute confidentiality in which the probability of detection is 1, relative confidentiality where this probability is less than 1, and collective confidentiality, which refers to the probability of detection of at least one person. In spatial data, the probability of personal detection is less than 1, and the probability of collective detection varies directly with this probability and COVID-19 morbidity. Statistical agencies have been concerned with relative and collective confidentiality, which they implement using the techniques of truncation, where spatial data are not made public for zones with small populations, and censoring, where exact data are not made public for zones where morbidity is small. Granular spatial data are essential for epidemiological research into COVID-19. We argue that in their reluctance to make these data available to the public, data security officers (DSO) have unreasonably prioritized data protection over freedom of information. We also argue that by attaching importance to relative and collective confidentiality, they have over-indulged in data truncation and censoring. We highlight the need for legislation concerning relative and collective confidentiality, and regulation of DSO practices regarding data truncation and censoring. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Journal of Official Statistics (JOS) is the property of Journal of Official Statistics (JOS) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Raising the bar (17)

This editorial summarizes the papers published in issue 16(3) (2021) in order to raise the bar in applied spatial economic research and highlight new trends and knowledge. The first paper analyses the economic consequences of the rise and spread of the Covid-19 virus in the Brazilian state of São Paulo. The second paper presents a multi-regional generalized RAS technique to update input–output tables. The third paper investigates which European Union regions are most likely to be exposed to external shocks and which are more resilient. The fourth paper proposes a new neighbourhood inequality index for cities. The fifth paper analyses productivity and profitability using a sophisticated hierarchical model applied to a huge data set of individual firms. The sixth paper contains an empirical analysis on the choice of the national capital city location among 80 potential candidates in China over a period of 2240 years. The seventh paper explains political ideology at the municipality level in Switzerland based on 312 federal referendums between 1981 and 2017. The eighth paper examines the driving forces of business cycle synchronization among the 49 US states.

Cascades - Mapping the multi-disciplinary landscape in a post-pandemic world.

This paper introduces the Special Issue on Cascading Effects in Disaster Risk Management. It reviews the contributions and highlights their multi-disciplinary interpretations of cascades. It proceeds to discuss whether the on-going unfolding of the COVID-19 pandemic illustrates the cascades metaphor.